TO: Nick Sagalkin, Regional Supervisor
Division of Commercial Fisheries, Region IV
DATE: December 16, 2016
SUBJECT: Preliminary 2017 Salmon Forecasts
FROM: Kevin Schaberg, Regional Finfish Research Supervisor
Division of Commercial Fisheries, Region IV
Regional research, management, and biometric staff have developed and reviewed the 2017 run
forecasts for pink and sockeye salmon stocks in Region IV. This is a relatively early release for
Region IV forecasts, and numbers should be considered preliminary until inclusion in the annual
statewide document to be released in early 2017.
Total run forecasts are shown in tables 1 and 2 as point estimates and ranges. The ranges are
80% prediction intervals, meaning that we have 80% confidence that the actual 2017 run will fall
within this range. Estimated escapements are subtracted from the total run forecasts to yield
estimated 2017 harvests; these harvest estimates are shown as point estimates for pink and
sockeye salmon. Pink salmon (as well as Spiridon sockeye salmon) harvests are also reported as
Confidence in each forecast varies based on data relationships in the underlying models. Full
methods and discussion will be included in the statewide document.
NPFMC Moves to Postpone GOA TBM Indefinitely
By Ernie Weiss, AEB Natural Resources Director
AEB Fishermen’s Meeting – Winter Fisheries Teleconference
Wednesday – December 21, 2016 2PM
TELECONFERENCE audio/participation to be available at the following sites:
King Cove Harbor House, Sand Point Borough office, False Pass City Office, Anchorage AEB office
Meeting to be broadcast live on KSDP at www.apradio.org
Agencies Representatives available at this teleconference meeting:
U. S. Coast Guard, Kodiak.
Alaska Department of Fish & Game, Kodiak.
NMFS Alaska Region, Juneau.
Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle.
North Pacific Observer Program & A.I.S. observer providers.
Other fisheries enforcement representatives.
Attention: Commercial Halibut Fishermen and Marine Enthusiasts
UAF PhD Student to Host Research Outreach Event in Sand Point; Monday, Dec. 5th at the Community Tribal Building, 630pm
Title of the Talk: “Eyes on the Sea: What halibut fishermen have to say about bycatch and data collection in their fishery”
In 2013, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council extended the federal fisheries observer program to include vessels commercially fishing Pacific halibut. But what sort of information does the observer program gather in the halibut fleet? And what kinds of preferences do halibut fishermen have about data collection while they fish?
During the spring of 2015, Elizabeth Figus interviewed 78 halibut fishermen in Southeast Alaska. She asked them about what different species come up on their hooks, and how that affects their fishing strategies. She also asked them to describe their preferences between data collection strategies: human observers, electronic monitoring, detailed logbooks, or how things were before 2013.
Elizabeth invites the public to hear about her research on Monday, the 5th. There will be time for discussion and feedback after a short presentation. Refreshments will be provided. If you would like to schedule a separate presentation/meeting time with Elizabeth during her stay in Sand Point, email her, at: email@example.com.
Elizabeth Figus is a 5th year Fisheries PhD student at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, working with Dr. Keith Criddle. Don’t forget to “Like” the research, at: www.facebook.com/halibutresearch.
“The following is an overview of the 2016 Alaska Peninsula, Aleutian Islands, and Atka-Amlia Islands Areas commercial salmon fishing season. Total harvest presented from the 2016 commercial salmon fishing season should closely approximate final harvest numbers for all species. The 2016 commercial salmon harvest in the Alaska Peninsula, Aleutian Islands, and Atka-Amlia Islands Management Areas totaled 15,345 Chinook, 5,981,217 sockeye, 260,922 coho, 2,883,577 pink, and 513,338 chum salmon. Subsistence salmon harvest will be reported in the 2016 annual management report (AMR). Data detailed in this report are considered preliminary. Preliminary exvessel value of salmon harvested in Area M totaled $27,730,204. Exvessel value information was generated from fish tickets and does not include postseason adjustments paid to fishermen.”