ADF&G: 2017 Preliminary Chignik, Kodiak And Ak Peninsula Salmon Forecast

Download the 2017 Preliminary Chignik, Kodiak And AK Peninsula Salmon Forecast (PDF, 300KB)

TO: Nick Sagalkin, Regional Supervisor
Division of Commercial Fisheries, Region IV
DATE: December 16, 2016
SUBJECT: Preliminary 2017 Salmon Forecasts
FROM: Kevin Schaberg, Regional Finfish Research Supervisor
Division of Commercial Fisheries, Region IV

Forecasts
Regional research, management, and biometric staff have developed and reviewed the 2017 run
forecasts for pink and sockeye salmon stocks in Region IV. This is a relatively early release for
Region IV forecasts, and numbers should be considered preliminary until inclusion in the annual
statewide document to be released in early 2017.
Total run forecasts are shown in tables 1 and 2 as point estimates and ranges. The ranges are
80% prediction intervals, meaning that we have 80% confidence that the actual 2017 run will fall
within this range. Estimated escapements are subtracted from the total run forecasts to yield
estimated 2017 harvests; these harvest estimates are shown as point estimates for pink and
sockeye salmon. Pink salmon (as well as Spiridon sockeye salmon) harvests are also reported as
80% ranges.
Confidence in each forecast varies based on data relationships in the underlying models. Full
methods and discussion will be included in the statewide document.